Chief economist for NAR says we will know soon if the housing stimulus worked or not.

“If the pause in housing activity only last another month . . . then I think we’re on our way to a decent recovery,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors told St. Louis Realtors on Monday. “But if the pause lasts beyond August, then we’re looking at trouble.”

Yun also sited jobs creation as a major indicator for an economic turnaround.   “If we see 1/2 million jobs created in the second half of this year – that is a good sign that the economy is turning around,” Yun said.  “Unfortunately, it may take over four years for us to recover from all the job losses we have sustained so far.”

“A possible ‘Double-Dip’ in the housing market is a concern, but it would be mild considering the huge drop in home values we have already seen,” Yun said. “The bigger fear is whether consumer psychology is damaged enough to create an ‘over-correction’ in prices.”

Yun also warned that Realtors must get used to dealing with short sales and foreclosures because they are not going away.  “Distressed home sales will continue to be over 1/3rd of the St. Louis housing market,” he said.

In regards to the housing stimulus, Yun says the National Association of Realtors estimates that nearly an additional one  million buyers entered the housing market to take advantage of the tax credit for homebuyers.  “These are buyers we estimate would not have bought homes if the incentive wasn’t available,” he clarified.

Yun also spoke about the possibility of a ‘housing shortage’ within the next 2-3 years.  “Household formation is poised to rebound,” he says. The recession has forced college graduates to move back in with their parents and for some to “double-up” with roommates.  “If housing starts continue to drop as the economy improves, there will be a lot of people looking to buy houses.”

Visit your St. Louis Real Estate Information site for more details.

Real Estate absorption rate for St. Louis is defined as the number of months required to sell the current, St. Louis real estate inventory.  In a tough real estate market, this number is an important one to keep in mind.  The chart below shows the absorption rate for a selection of zip codes and for St. Louis county.  

Particularly shocking is the number of home sales last month in the Des Peres/ Town and Country/ 63131 area.  I’ve covered this area for a long time and am surprised to see only 4 sales in the zip code last month.  I’m sure next month’s numbers will paint a different picture.  We look at absorption rates as trends.  Nevertheless, 4 sales is pretty shocking.  

We look at absorption rate to help us gauge our expectations for our homes that are on the market.  If you put your 63021 home on the market today, you will be competing with 287 homes.  We can reasonably anticipate that only 31 of them will sell next month.  So what do we need to do to get your home to be picked?

First, we need to price your home in light of the competition.  We need to be priced lower than the competing properties of the same size, finish, and condition.  This will enable us to stand out in the sea of houses on the market.  I can advise you on how to price your St. Louis home competitively.

Second, we need to look better looking than the competition.  Buyers are judging a beauty pageant.  If you don’t stand out as the top of the heap in terms of condition and quality, you’d better be a real steal.  Nobody seems to be interested in painting, removing wallpaper and carpet, gutting kitchens, etc. these days.  The fact is, there is enough inventory out there that they don’t have to.

Thanks for visiting my blog.  This post shows our latest listings.  Of note are the “less than 200k” properties that are perfect for your first-time homebuyer referral.  You can also sign up for an auto-email of the latest St. Louis county real estate listings.  

First time home buyers are eligible for up to $8000 in tax credits for homes purchased before 12/1/2009.  This tax credit can be made on the 2008 return by filing an amendment.  In other words, you can get the credit mailed to you now!  See this website for information about the St. Louis first time homebuyer federal tax credit.

Also of note are a number of properties in the Mason Ridge School District:

1.  21 Broadview Farm Road, 63141
2.  23 Broadview Farm Road, 63141
3.  1608 Foxleigh, 63131
4.  1 Hawthorne Estates Drive, 63131

Call Russell Nolting at 314-267-2636 for more information.   

23 Broadview Farms Road Creve Coeur, MO 63141

23 Broadview Farms Road is one of most desirable homes in Broadview Farms with acres of woods, stocked fishing pond and the peaceful bells of Priory. This spacious 5+ bedroom has 6 bathrooms, open floor plan, 3 fireplaces and beautiful hardwood floors throughout. L/R has step-down for second seating area or g/piano. Large updated kitchen with island, gas cooktop (Dacor), SS appliances, sky lights and wood cabinets. VERY PRIVATE M/F MASTER RETREAT with french doors,study with fireplace and large master bath with double sinks, whirlpool tub, sauna, separate shower and walk-in closet. This home has exceptionally well-planned spaces for everyone in the family. Parking for 6 cars. Sunny walk-out basement with kitchen, counter seating, hobby/office, fireplace, 6th bedroom and full bath. Ideal situation for live-in help or family member. In-ground sprinklers, surrround sound, C/VAC, new driveway and patio, 30 year roof, new gutters. EXCELLENT CONDITION. Half-acre lot backs to woods Priory. Pet-free home.

You can search for more St. Louis Home Listings on our website.

Or Call Russell at 314-267-2636.

Last week’s open houses.